Google Ads can now multiply a new customer's value. Should the bonus grow with the basket?

KEY TAKEAWAYS

1. Multiply by only fits when a new customer's later margin grows with their first basket. Flat fits when it does not.
2. A bonus reaches spend only after division by target ROAS. Size it as extra spend you accept times the target.
3. Export past first orders and the next 12 months of margin by order size before you choose a setting.
4. Judge the change on Original conv. value and CAC, not on the inflated conversion value column.

On 22 October 2026 Google said it is rolling out a second way to set the new customer value in its customer lifecycle goals. Until now you could only add a fixed amount to a new customer's first purchase. Now you can choose "Multiply by" and scale that purchase by anything from 1.1x to 5x. The coverage so far explains the arithmetic. It does not tell you which setting your business should use, or how big the number should be. Both answers come from your own customer data and one division.

What did Google change?

PPC Land reported a three-post thread from Google's AdsLiaison account. The new option sits beside the old "Increase by" field. Multipliers run from 1.1x to 5x, and Google says they are rolling out globally this month across Search, Shopping, Performance Max and Demand Gen, in Google Ads and Search Ads 360. Search Engine Roundtable confirmed the same scope the same morning. The announcement also extends high value mode to Shopping and adds retention modes.

Google's example is a 1.2x setting. A $100 purchase counts as $120 for bidding. A $500 purchase counts as $600. A flat $20 bonus would give $120 and $520.

The basics have not changed. Google's help pages say the new customer value needs a Purchase conversion goal and value-based bidding, meaning Target ROAS or Maximize conversion value. The extra value applies to the first purchase only. Google's autodetection treats anyone with a tracked purchase in the last 540 days as returning, unless you send your own new_customer flag in the tag. Our piece on who Meta counts as new compares that 540-day rule with other platforms.

The documentation has not caught up. On the day of the announcement, the Google Ads API page for lifecycle goals still said its value_multiplier field is not supported for new customer acquisition, only for loyalty retention. The Search Ads 360 help page and Google's configuration page still describe a fixed added value. If you build campaigns through the API, check before you plan on the multiplier.

How does the bonus become spend?

Through your target. Google's Target ROAS page says the strategy sets bids to reach an average return equal to the target, using predicted conversion value. As a working approximation, the cost the bidder will accept for a conversion is its value divided by the target.

That makes the bonus smaller than it looks. At a 400% target, an $84 bonus lets the bidder pay about $21 more for a new customer, not $84. So the sum runs backwards from the spend you want:

• Increase by: bonus = extra spend you accept × target ROAS (as a ratio, so 400% is 4).
• Multiply by: multiplier = 1 + (extra spend you accept × target ROAS ÷ first order value).

Practitioners trip on this. Andrew Lolk of Savvy Revenue gives an example of an $80 order at a 400% target with a $20 bonus, and says the effective target falls to 300% with a $26.67 cost per acquisition. By the division above, his own inputs give $100 ÷ 4 = $25 and a real return of 320% (our arithmetic). His point stands. The bonus quietly lowers your target for new customers. It just lowers it by less than people expect.

Should the bonus grow with the basket?

This is the only real question the new setting asks. A multiplier says a customer whose first order is twice as big is worth twice the extra spend. A flat bonus says every new customer is worth the same extra spend, whatever they bought first.

The evidence points both ways.

• For scaling: Glady, Lemmens and Croux (International Journal of Research in Marketing, 2015) studied four product categories, from online music and securities trading to fast-moving consumer goods. Across customers, frequent buyers tended to spend more per transaction, and large buyers stayed active longer. The same study found these patterns varied by category and by customer.
• Against scaling by price: Kevin Hillstrom's 2018 rebuy data showed one $100 item had a 14.8% rebuy rate, against 22.1% for four $25 items. Same dollars, different future. Optimove's analysis of over a million transactions, which is undated, links repeat orders to the number of items in the first order, not its value.
• Mixed: Common Thread Collective's 2023 study of one beauty brand found full-size kit buyers repeated more often over their lifetime than sample kit buyers (42.9% against 37.8%). Their second orders were smaller, though: $103.94 against $114.80. The bigger first basket did not predict a bigger next one.

A reply on X, quoted by PPC Land, put the objection in one line: "That assumes the acquisition premium scales with basket size." None of these sources is a controlled test of Google's setting, and the beauty study gives no sample size. So no published number settles it. Your cohorts can.

A worked example

Hypothetical numbers, for illustration only. Two stores each run Target ROAS at 400%. Each exports customers acquired 13 to 24 months ago, groups them by first order value, and measures the gross margin each group earned over the next 12 months. Each store is willing to pay that full repeat margin up front.

Store A sells furniture accessories. Repeat margin barely moves with the first order: $18 after a $50 order, $21 after $100, $26 after $200.

The flat bonus is $21 × 4. The multiplier is 1 + 84 ÷ 100, set to match the middle basket. The flat bonus misses by $3 to $5. The multiplier underpays small baskets by $7.50 and overpays large ones by $16. Store A should keep Increase by.

Store B sells consumables, and repeat margin runs at about 30% of the first order: $15, $30 and $60. Here Multiply by 2.2 (1 + 0.3 × 4) matches every row. A flat $120 bonus would allow $30 for everyone, overpaying the $50 basket by $15 and underpaying the $200 basket by $30. Store B should switch.

Note that Store B's 2.2x sits right beside Google's own directional guidance of about 2x a regular customer. Store A's correct setting is a flat amount that no multiplier can reproduce.

Whose guidance on size should you follow?

The published starting points disagree. Google's configuration page suggests new customers at about 2x a regular customer and pre-fills a value based on average order value. Search Engine Roundtable quoted Google in 2025 suggesting a test at 2x average order value. Microsoft's January 2026 guidance for its own Performance Max goal says ideally at least 30% of the revenue from a usual sale. Google's newer value tool, reported by PPC Land in February 2026, turns a target ROAS for new customers into a suggested account-wide value.

Lolk argues a lower new-customer target is the cleaner idea. Branden Antolick, quoted by PPC Land, said his team stopped using it because it inflates the conversion value column, and runs separate new-customer-only campaigns instead. Google, for its part, recommends the new customer value for every advertiser with purchase goals.

Each of these is a rule of thumb without your margin data. The cohort method replaces them. Where you cannot run it yet, start low and treat the first month as data collection.

Which setting fits which business?

On lists, sources disagree on the floor. PPC Land's report says segments need at least 1,000 active members. Google's current help page says 100 active members in at least one network, and Search Engine Land reported Google cutting the Search minimum for Customer Match from 1,000 to 100. Check the size column in your own Audience manager.

A seven-step check

1. Export cohorts. Take customers acquired 13 to 24 months ago, so each has a full year of later orders.
2. Group by first order value. Use four or five bands with enough customers in each to trust the average.
3. Measure later margin. Sum gross margin from orders after the first, per customer, for 12 months. Decide what share of it you will pay up front.
4. Fit a line. Write the spend you accept as a fixed part plus a slope times first order value. Compare the fixed part with the slope times your median basket.
5. Convert with your target. If the fixed part dominates, set Increase by to that spend times your target ratio. If the slope dominates, set Multiply by to 1 plus the slope times the target.
6. Change one thing. Leave the target as it is when you change the value, so you can see what the value did. Watch the Original conv. value and Customer Acquisition Cost columns, not the inflated conversion value column. CAC is not available for Demand Gen.
7. Test the lift. Google's measurement page says lifecycle incrementality testing is not supported inside Google Ads and points to Conversion Lift. Our guide to geo test design covers the alternative. Read results at the margin, as in our note on PMax channel reports.

The multiplier is a useful option for stores whose best customers start big. For everyone else, the old flat field stays the better tool. If you want to see how your brand shows up when buyers ask AI assistants where to shop, the waitlist is open.

Questions

What does Multiply by do in Google Ads customer acquisition goals?

It raises a new customer's first purchase value in proportion to the basket instead of adding a fixed amount. Google's example at 1.2x turns a $100 purchase into $120 and a $500 purchase into $600. Google says it is rolling out this month across Search, Shopping, Performance Max and Demand Gen, in Google Ads and Search Ads 360.

Is a percentage multiplier better than a flat new customer value?

Only when a new customer's later value grows with their first order. The evidence is mixed. One peer-reviewed study finds bigger spenders tend to buy more often and stay longer, with patterns that vary by category. Retail data from other sources ties repeat buying to the number of items, not the price. Test it on your own cohorts.

How does the new customer value interact with Target ROAS?

Target ROAS bids toward an average return, so extra value turns into extra allowed spend only after division by the target. At a 400% target, an $84 bonus allows about $21 more cost for that customer. Size the bonus as the extra spend you accept multiplied by your target ROAS.

Does the extra value show up in reported revenue?

Yes. Google's help pages say the conversion value column includes the added lifecycle value. Use the Original conv. value column for real revenue and the Customer Acquisition Cost column for cost per new customer. Multipliers up to 5x can widen the gap between the two value columns a lot.

Sources

1. PPC Land, Google Ads lets retailers multiply new customer values up to 5x ppc.land
2. Search Engine Roundtable, Google Ads Updates To Customer Lifecycle Goals For Holidays seroundtable.com
3. Google Ads Help, About customer lifecycle goals support.google.com
4. Google Ads Help, Step 1 of 5, Define your customer lists support.google.com
5. Google Ads Help, Configure your lifecycle goals support.google.com
6. Google Ads Help, Measure your lifecycle goals campaigns support.google.com
7. Google Ads Help, New Customer Value and customer acquisition settings support.google.com
8. Google Ads Help, About Target ROAS bidding support.google.com
9. Google Ads Help, Set up new customer acquisition parameter in your conversion tracking tag support.google.com
10. Search Ads 360 Help, About Google Ads customer lifecycle goals in Search Ads 360 support.google.com
11. Google Ads API, Lifecycle goals developers.google.com
12. Microsoft Advertising Blog, Performance Max updates and other product news for January 2026 preview-about.ads.microsoft.com
13. Savvy Revenue, New Customer Acquisition in Google Ads, Stop Using It Wrong savvyrevenue.com
14. PPC Land, Google's new bidding trick calculates what first-time buyers are actually worth ppc.land
15. Search Engine Roundtable, Google Ads Experiments With Settings New Customer Value seroundtable.com
16. Search Engine Land, How to use customer acquisition and retention goals in Google Ads searchengineland.com
17. Search Engine Land, Google slashes Customer Match list minimums in Search Campaigns to 100 Users searchengineland.com
18. PPC Land, Google Ads introduces original conversion value metric for unadjusted performance data ppc.land
19. Common Thread Collective, First Purchase for a Lifetime of Repeat Revenue commonthreadco.com
20. MineThatData, June 2018 posts (AOV and LTV; How Rebuy Rates Are Impacted By Price) blog.minethatdata.com
21. Optimove, first order size and repeat purchase analysis optimove.com
22. Glady, Lemmens and Croux, Unveiling the relationship between the transaction timing, spending and dropout behavior of customers (IJRM, 2015) repository.tilburguniversity.edu

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